Highly Recommended: Regions Financial (RF)

This is the chart of RF. Short term, RF is showing a potential bounce towards the 5.59-5.98areas. You'll know which one to take profit at depending on how strong the price breaks either of those resistance levels. 

Notice RF found support long term from the March lows. Notice the decrease in volume on the selloff.

RF is being manipulted, I've always thought that. "analysts" have downgraded, upgraded, spat on, and praised RF recently. 

If it breaks 4.35, look to buy it in the 3.80s, as it's always found decent support in here. 

In a month, you'll thank me for the near 100% gain. 

*Strong buy

MGM trade, using Fibonacci

Take note of where I bought MGM today. The chatroom I'm in were all watching for a bounce. I told them to wait until 8.07 and to sell above 9.06...

As you can see from the chart, 8.07 was the intraday low and bounced extremely hard once it reached that point.

So why does fibonacci work for me yet people still claim Fibonacci works off chance alone? Is it because people look at the Fibonacci lines? 

It doesn't matter to me either way, because I know that it works well when used correctly. 

Also, this is the same methodology I used in making my trades in NVAX as you can see from my earlier post

More Fibonacci

How I knew where SSW would hit its low and how I knew where to take profits on COIN

Instead of looking at resistance on the chart, which is always helpful as many traders look for previous price levels as resistance/support, many people use Fibonacci. As you can see from this chart of COIN, it broke the price resistance from March. 

To use fibonacci for areas to take profits, first you measure the daily candlestick so that 161% moves up.. This becomes your first level to take profits. As you can see from the chart, my target of 1.76 was off by .03. If you used previous prices on the chart, you would've missed the high by .13. A .10 cent difference. 

Here is a chart of SSW. A person in the chatroom I frequent was playing the bounce. He bought in at 7.01 (a round number) and decided if it was to go lower, he would average down. After it broke 7, I told him not to touch it until 6.22.

The next day, 6.20 was the low of the day. You can see from the chart where I got this number. 

Patterns

"Patterned Response

Price patterns occur in all financial markets pretty much the same way they have since financial market inception. Patterns of price behavior are merely reflections or should we say manifestations of collective group human behavior. To a new recent degree, those patterns even reflect computer program behavior which is a logical offshoot of human behavior. If you stop and think about it, computers and their operation are nothing more than predetermined thoughts within boundaries and guidelines set by humans. Even neural nets, one step into the process of computerized detached thought is still reined in by man.

There is order and repetition, aka constants or "control" in financial markets. Newbies cannot easily see it. Heck, even veterans struggle sometimes to spot what should be the obvious. But in time and over time we learn to see = measure the same things over and over and over again with predictable outcomes. Here's the catch: that predictable outcome is spread across a large number of similar setups averaged together. Take ten, twenty, fifty, one hundred or one thousand similar patterns and apply semi-rigid trade method entry rules with a trade management method giving at least a +2/-1 (if not greater) profit to loss ratio and you are guaranteed success."

Not too many people look at themselves as a whole. A collective. Symbionic lifeforces working together to accomplish a task.  You see ants doing this everyday. If you could ask ants why they work in teams all assigned with different goals, they'd probably wonder what the hell you're talking about, to leave em alone so they could back to what they were doing, which they couldn't explain in the first place.  Another example would be fish in the water unaware they're in water. 

People are different. We're able to look outside the box and see and observe our surroundings before describing them, analyzing them, and interpreting them. If we were simple-minded creatures, we'd never notice the daily routine we go through and the constant repitiveness individuals share. We all experience the same emotions, have the same thoughts, act as individuals, yet as a whole, there is a goal I'm not sure we quite understand or even realize is taking place. A goal similar to what ants accomplish with their homes and multiplication.

Would your male cat be able to tell you why he enjoys sex so much? That's the difference between us and them. People realize can tell you that not only does it feel good, but we do it for procreation, whether intentional or instinct.

A reason I love Fibonacci TA is not only that I enjoy finding patterns in both uptrending and downtrending charts with it, but because I feel that these patterns are manifestations of our collective group behavior. 

People take for granted what used to have to be charted and drawn by hand can now be done by a simple click and drag of the mouse. 

Watchlist 4/28

HL - This one came out of nowhere. I was looking at an old list of mine and saw that it was up 16% on heavy volume. I'm watching for a 3 test and a possible break.

Flu Plays

NVAX

BCRX

GNBT

Bioterror Play

HEPH - may start running soon. Cash rich.

ALD is getting stronger and stronger. This one will run fast and hard if it breaks 2. A must on the watchlist for the next month

How I traded NVAX 3 times using Fibonacci

Fibonacci/PPS/Volume/Indicators/

There are so many skeptics out there regarding Fibonacci.. It works for me, and they say to stick with what works, correct? 
Anyway, if you're curious about fibonacci and the different ways to apply it, I'm documenting my trades where I used fibonacci for price levels.  It's such a great undervalued tool. I love it

To use Fibonacci in a situation like this, you would need to measure the closing area Friday to the HOD today. 

1.40 low - 3.88 high

As you can see from the chart, It retraces to the 2.93 area, volume increases, %R begins moving towards 0. 

The second retracement occurs at the 2.64 area. Volume increases, %R moves toward 0. Temp support is formed. 

The final retracement occurs at the 2.35 area. Once again, volume increases, %r reverses.

That's 3 trades off of one stock using Fibonacci to identify support. 

The reason it works, simple math. The same pattern appears in every chart whether or not you perceive it.  

Based on Fibonacci alone, I can tell you NVAX is going to 5.44, unless something changes with the possible "pandemic"

Watchlist - swine flu

These are swine flu plays that all moved during the 2005-2006 bird flu scare.

NVAX - cash rich. heaavy volume.

BCRX -  cash rich. trading over book value.

GNVC - just watch this one.

HEB - over 400% vol

INSM - not sure about this one. moved during the bird flu scare, but not doing anything atm.

SVA  - low vol. cash rich. trading over book value.

ADLS - nothing special. had bounces and failure in 2005-06. watch anyway for quick trades.

The financials should dip in the morning. Watch FAS, BAC, MS, WFC for pps and vol increases after any dip. trend is up. 

Fibonacci doesn't work if..

..you don't use it as a dynamic tool.

Here is a picture of where I both bought and sold FAS as a swing trade yesterday and today. 

Entry price: 7.18

Exit: 8.81

Limit orders were used.. I was sweatting just a little toward the end of the day, but I nailed the high thanks to Fibonacci.

Just chance? Maybe.......Or perhaps there's a reason it works

What a crazy day

I hope all the bears and doomsayers got killed today. I think I speak for all bulls or those who know how to read a chart when I say: Fuck you. Die.

That is all.

Watchlist 4/21

CNTF - huge volume for the day. could run to 2

NTWK  - watch for .72 break. should run $1+ if it breaks (Thanks, Marketkid)

SCON - not sure what's up with this one.  possible long play. short at tops.

CHINA - 200dma is 1.52. I expect this one to be above $2 soon. 

How a swing trade went against me, and how I turned it into a 300% gain

Since I posted on how I find my sell targets or to find the high range, I figured I'd post how I dealt with a loser.  ALD. I hated this stock... I broke many of my trading rules chasing this stock. I bought in the lower 4's, luckily got out around 4.20 before collapsing more. I decided I should buy more around 3. It can't go much lower, right? Well, it did, and went down rather quickly. But then I  how to stop worrying and love the bomb. 

In January, I bought 300 shares of ALD at 2.95. It gave a false breakout  during the January rally and I was caught amongst some bad ALD news. I bought at consolidation around a fib line, volume looked good, everything seemed to be in its place. I was happy I made a good trade.

But the gap down a few days later killed me. 

Well, I had a 50% loss in it so far. Should I sell it? Probably, however I am well-capitalized so I decided to hold on to it.  

My goal: buy the  bottom and either get out even or turn it into a winner.

How would you find bottoms using Fibonacci?

See this next picture, which shows how I measured the move.

What you would want to do is measure the gap from high to low by reversing the fibonacci so that 161.8 moves downward. My target buy price is now .60

Finally in Feburary my price target has been hit, my limit order filled, 1475 shares (the same $$ amount I originally put in) at .60, and my stop loss at .49 never triggered. It went to .58 but there was still a lot of support around my number so I didn't worry.

I now own 1775 shares at .99

At 1.30 I sell out with a profit of $537, or a 30% gain. I then put another limit order at .60 to buy 1775 shares (I like consistency), a total cost of $1065. My new stop loss is set at .54, which is never triggered.

So, I turn my 75% January loser into a 30% gain, and on the new swing trade I own 1775 shares at 1.89, which is a 300% return.

That's one way  you can use fibonacci if you come across a loser, especially on gap downs where you have absolute no control over. 

Be sure to use stop losses.

How I nailed the high on UIS using Fibonacci

Firstly, I bought UIS on a 50% retracement. Using a high of .89 and a low of .40, you see where a 50% retracement is. You could've used .28 as your low and .66 (an exact level) would've been a 38.2% retracement. Since I now have confirmation, I move on to the next step. 

I use 50% retracements because stocks tend to retrace half of their gains. (more on this later)

My target was .65, it fell to .66 and I bought in at .68. At this point in time, I now own 1500 shares.

So now what? What do you do now? Trade it? Sell it for a 15% profit?

I hold to see if it takes out that high of .89. If it fails, I sell.

So here we are with a blank slate. It has gapped open and broke those old highs with ease. So where do I sell? $1? It's a good round number. Should have resistance here right? 

I hold. This is a text book break out pattern. I now need a sell target. 

First, I need to find the high that the 1.36 was a retracement of. So how do you do this? Well, you can either look at the price history and draw in some lines, or you can use what in my experience works even more so. Fibonacci.

From the chart and Fib lines drawn in, you can see that 1.36 was a 38.2% retracement from the high of 2.97. Your high hitting a fib line is confirmation that you've found the high other people are looking at. (You want your high to be at some kind of support, so 2.97 was my number based on how well the high in december lined up, but since you want your high to be at support, we don't make 1.36 a 50% retracement from the red bars in September

Now that we've established our high. I adjust the low for the most recent move. I now pull the Fibonnacci's low to .28.

As you can see from the chart, the next target level is 1.63.

The trend in UIS is UP, which is why I sold 3/4 of my position and plan on buying back atleast half that when it retraces (if it fails at this level, it should retrace toward 1.36-1.21) Anywhere in this price range is a buy. 

So the high of the day was 1.62. It missed my target by .01.  I ended up selling at 1.60.

The point of Fibonacci isn't to predict a stocks behavior, rather it is to establish price support.

I've done the same thing with CAR, PIR, FAS, RF, FITB. The hod on CAR ended up being 2.05 by the end of the day. I sold at 1.96 because $2 didn't seem like it would've been taken out. Sure enough, 2.05, my original target, was hit within the last 30minutes of the trading day. 

This is just one way to use Fibonacci. If something isn't clear, feel free to ask a question. The more we go along, the more detailed and conise I'll be. For now, I only have a few hits a day so I doubt anybody pays attention.

Also note: Do not use Fibonacci as your only trading method. It's not an exact science and does in no way predict a stocks behavior. As I've already stated, it provides price support only. 

Price and Volume go a long way. 

Watches, 4/20

I'm starting my list early so I won't forget

I'm going to start using target prices. Could be helpful for someone, or just a reminder for myself.

I'm adding new symbols  here as I find them: 

New Additions: 

CNXT  - Short squeeze? Huge volume pop. Watch for a 1.48 break. 1.78+ target if it breaks it, 2nd target 2.15. Volume pop 

WSTL - this one is coming back around. watch .38 break.

SIX - Here's a new one. I belive the symbol changed to SIXF even though it won't pull up in my charts yet. Sixflags is thought to be going bankrupt. Any positive news regarding debt negotiations and/or earnings will send this back towards .30

Symbol      SellTarget   BuyTarget  2ndSellTarget 

FTK -         3.11 - 3.16       2.10             4.19
UIS -              2.00         1.21 -1.36       2.47
CAR                2.51              1.56             3.84

ETFC                                   2.10
FRP -  Takin out highs. Could run fast depending on volume/momentum
LVLT  - Takin out previous highs. I contend the old high of 1.65 is coming out. Triple bottom? Smoother angle of ascent. Definitely a buy if it breaks 1.65.  Debt news (seems to be the catalyst of a hard runner lately)
HBAN  - financial runner to buy on pullbacks. Earnings announcement on 4/21. Short or long? Wait til then.

ALD -  If it breaks 2, could be a runner.
DSCO - should be in constant watch. The huge dips alone are profitable. 20-40% within minutes

Shorting these would be a good idea on pops. They all should offer you 50-100% gains within a short amount of time if you swing them. Buy dips, imo. I prefer to swing them.

If you read my blog, you'll notice the same symbols keep popping up. That is because I attempt to study each one as if it was my own. Knowing the chart by heart helps in identifying buys based on price and volume alone.

I started this blog at the end of March. So far, my calls have been pretty consistent

1. CSE - hit
   
2. SOMX - tradeable, not swing worthy
   
3. DPTR - hit
   
4. ENTR - hit
   
5. MGM - hit
   
6. CNO - hit
   
7. FMD - hit
   
8. UIS - hit
   
9. CAR - hit
   
10. EBHI - miss
    
11. TRE - flop
    
12. GCI - hit
    
13. LCC - hit
14. AMR - hit
15. UAUA - hit
    
16. DVAX - miss
    
17. VRNM - hit
    
18. PIR - hit
    
19. QTM - hit
    
20. FRP - hit
    
21. STSA - hit
    
22. JAVA - hit. Called the low at 5.90, missed it by .03
    
23. PLI - miss
    
24. FMD - Hit
    
25. EBHI - Miss
    
26. DSCO - hit
    
27. PBY - hit
    
28. URE - hit
    
29. THLD - miss. holding

Every symbol I list is breaking out and should always be set on watch. Set alerts at price levels and set your notification to your cell phone.

Out of those, I've traded DPTR, MGM (bounced hard just as I predicted), CNO, FMD, UIS, VRNM, PIR, QTM, JAVA, STSA, DSCO, CAR, and URE.

That's a win ratio of 75% if you count them all up, and many of these are still breaking out and are still potential 100% gains. In the last 3 months, I've yet to take a loss. This is why you have to study the same stocks over and over and not trade a hundred different stocks a month. Too many traders that I know trade 1000's of different stocks in a matter of months. If they'd stick with the same handful, they'd have several 100% gains, especially in this market. With the general consensus that our economy is possibly stablizing, you have reactions in these near BK companies, especially after they receive credit, sell debt, or renegotiate loans. Learn the pattern, how the stock reacts during the day, breakout points, set price targets, volume alerts, and price alerts.

If you find yourself with a 100% -200% gain in a stock, DO NOT SELLCOMPLETELY OUT. ALWAYS keep a small number of shares. Not only does this build up your portfolio, but it helps you keep track of stocks that have broken out. 
Out of those, I'm still holding CNO, FMD, UIS, PIR, and URE for that very reason. 

Everybody will be wrong eventually

On a long enough time line, everybody is right.

People had been calling for a bear market since 1984. When the crash hit in '87, the bears cheered. What they failed to do was study charts enough to know the difference between an imminent second crash and a 10 year rally.

After the rally in 03, the bears began cheerleading a new bear market. "Inflation!" they cried. "Housing bubble" they spouted!" It took 4 years and a lot of missed opportunity for their dreams to come true.

On a long enough time line, everybody is right.

Me? I'm staying long the halves of FAS/BAC/C I kept until they come and get me at 2.70/3/1, respectively. Or at least until they give me true signals they're collapsing.

Watchlist - simplified

UIS - breaking out. Sell target 1.63, or 1.36 if it doesn't break those highs
QTM - good volume, continuation
MGM - possible BK, may be a good bounce trade, or credit amendment trade (i love these)
PIR - obvious breakout. would buy in the morning, sell the highs, buy back on a retracement. this one is going higher
CAR - new highs, bought the BK rent-a-car. value added
FRP - This little creeper has taken out ALL highs from March. Bull pennant formed. Just needs a catalyst to run to 1.90. I would set an alert on this one. Probably either an RSI alert or a Volume alert as news is usually secondary
THLD - This little cash rich bio has been pumped by Wallstarb for the last several months. Had the opportunity to buy and hold in the .60 range. It FINALLY closed above 2. Very bullish. Trading above all Moving Averages, volume is increasing, has a huge pipeline, and AACR (cancer research) is coming up

Will add more if I come across any

Watchlist

Today was a good day for me

I bought CAR at the opening: 1.14. Holding O/N.
Also, my UIS long from .84/.68 finally popped today. Should have follow through. Especially look for it taking out that December high of 1.36. I'm selling if it doesn't take it out.

PIR, my baby that I rode from .30 to .92, popped again today. I got in at 1.07 and I am also holding this overnight.

DSCO failed today, bought in at 1.30, sold at 1.90.

The top 3 of these should have follow through tomorrow.

MGM failed afterhours after credit amendment discussions continued and are not resolved. Should be in play for a bounce


Great day for me!

I hope my two readers had as great of a day as I did

Cheers!

Watchlist

Airlines will make a good trade, and a flip

LCC/AMR/UAUA

DVAX popped. Might have follow through to 1.57. If it breaks 1.57, next targets are 1.82, 2.14

DPTR continued today. Should make a good short at SOME point :)
I'm a buyer on dips

Watches for tomorrow, 13th

VRNM... with news. on first wave. vol spike.


til later

Watchlist - 4/12

ISRN for the hell of it. I'd ignore this one altogether but I'm curious what it will do.

PLI
STSA
GCI
TRE
THLD - 50/200 cross. Low float. Has a huge upside.

URE

In order to play the real estate market, I believe this ETF to be the best choice.
AVB, PCL, BXP, HCP, EQR, VNO, PSA, NLY, and SPG make up this portfolio. As you can see, unlike FAS, which has Citigroup as a downpull, URE has only quality real estate companies. It's currently trading at 3.44.

Part of my strategy: Lets say I have $4,000 total that I'm willing to devote to this long/swing. On any pullback, I will take roughly a third of that ($1,333) and buy however many shares I can. At $3, I could buy 450 shares. If it goes lower, I will hold my position and buy more, using the same amount of money. So if it goes to $2, I will buy 666 (yes, I know) shares.
The other 1/3 of the money devoted to this, I will hold until it either puts in a new low below $1 or until I have confirmation of a breakout and buy more on a pullback.

The point of doing this: Buy it on the way down until you've caught the very bottom. I did this with FAS and averaged in at 2.70. I actually bought FAS 3 times. 3.60, 2.94, and 2.40. Because I was buying on the way down, I managed to nail the bottom without actually having to nail it. I'm now holding a 309% gain with this position since March (though I sold 1/2 of my position at the eod thursday).
With the profits, I bought FAZ at 10.49. I will buy more on Monday if the rally continues to average my cost down to make it easier to get out with a gain.

Some refer to this as position trading. The key to doing this however is: Being well capitalized, controlling your emotions, and NEVER letting your cash drop below 50% as you may need it to get out of a trade without a loss.

I have no idea what will happen on Monday. The volume in the financials was crazy, and all have a nice bullish candlestick sitting there indicating that it wants to go higher.
I haven't done much stock research this weekend, and I may not.
Not that anybody reads this but me, and the occasional passerby

I got another one

This market is so easy, a caveman can trade it.

The hard part is finding the breakout stocks.
My FAS long from 2.70 finally paid off today. I took 1/2 off the table at the days high and bought some FAZ with it as a hedge against my other 1/2 of FAS.

Yesterday, right before I went to bed, I found the stock PBY as posted.. It opened up at 5.55 and hit a high of 6.98. What a great trade! I didn't get in until 5.80 but it was an easy 18% gain.

I have not added anymore longs yet as I've been busy deciding what I want to do with my current longs. The next sell off we get, I have to go in and get something.

Anyway, I'll see what I can find over the weekend and maybe get a few stocks that still have some pull left in them.

Cheers

Thursday - 4/9

PBY

Volume, 45degree angle of ascent. may have follow through tomorrow

EBHI

Looks to be on the move

EBHI - eddie bauer

One for the road

DSCO

Nice Positive divergence on the daily RSI, volume spike, 200sma is 1.47 on a daily, 15min is showing a buy signal.

Be careful though, this one filled the gap of 1.76, though it did go through it.

If this gets another volume spike and a follow through, expect this one to go to 1.92 tomorrow. Fibonacci is showing a possible buy at 1.55, or 1.47.

Sorry, this all I can do for now. I gotta go to bed.
I'm long too many stocks at the moment and need to preserve my capital.

FMD - a clear winner

Did we get anybody to play FMD because of this blog?
If so, link to me!

I loaded up at 2.04 this morning and sold at 2.55 (my mid target)

Keep checking back for more momentum plays

Watchlist

FMD

Only one this time, but it's on its first wave, has a nice volume pop, RSI on a daily is huge, 200sma cross, has news to support it Should gap open tomorrow and run.

Next stop, 2.47, 2.55 - 3.08

Watchlist

Once again, the stocks I post are are ones that want to break out or have already broken out. 

I go for the potential 100% pops and prefer not to short. Shorting any pops in these would be a good idea if thats how you play

CSE

SOMX

ALTI

DPTR

ENTR

JAVA

The stocks I've posted below are still on watch. MGM and CNO have both taken off

The JAVA and IBM deal has fallen through, or discussions have come to a halt at the moment. Watch for Java to hit the 5.34-5.64 area. Top price target is 5.90. It will be a buy in here

Watchlist ---

Updated as I go along

MGM

NOBL

EBHI

All have news except EBHI, however, the volume towards eod tells me something is up