Saturday, April 11, 2009

URE

In order to play the real estate market, I believe this ETF to be the best choice.
AVB, PCL, BXP, HCP, EQR, VNO, PSA, NLY, and SPG make up this portfolio. As you can see, unlike FAS, which has Citigroup as a downpull, URE has only quality real estate companies. It's currently trading at 3.44.

Part of my strategy: Lets say I have $4,000 total that I'm willing to devote to this long/swing. On any pullback, I will take roughly a third of that ($1,333) and buy however many shares I can. At $3, I could buy 450 shares. If it goes lower, I will hold my position and buy more, using the same amount of money. So if it goes to $2, I will buy 666 (yes, I know) shares.
The other 1/3 of the money devoted to this, I will hold until it either puts in a new low below $1 or until I have confirmation of a breakout and buy more on a pullback.

The point of doing this: Buy it on the way down until you've caught the very bottom. I did this with FAS and averaged in at 2.70. I actually bought FAS 3 times. 3.60, 2.94, and 2.40. Because I was buying on the way down, I managed to nail the bottom without actually having to nail it. I'm now holding a 309% gain with this position since March (though I sold 1/2 of my position at the eod thursday).
With the profits, I bought FAZ at 10.49. I will buy more on Monday if the rally continues to average my cost down to make it easier to get out with a gain.

Some refer to this as position trading. The key to doing this however is: Being well capitalized, controlling your emotions, and NEVER letting your cash drop below 50% as you may need it to get out of a trade without a loss.

I have no idea what will happen on Monday. The volume in the financials was crazy, and all have a nice bullish candlestick sitting there indicating that it wants to go higher.
I haven't done much stock research this weekend, and I may not.
Not that anybody reads this but me, and the occasional passerby

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